Dale Link was born in West Palm Beach, Florida. His first memory, at the age of two, was awakening in the middle of the night to a howling wind, a very black sky, and rain hitting his face right after a category 4 hurricane had ripped off the roof of his family's house. Before his fifth birthday, seven tropical cyclones passed over his head.
Education: B.S. in engineering, North Carolina State University.
As a corporate engineer in Charlotte, NC, Dale approached the planting of a vegetable garden with an engineer's rigor. The advice from an 'old farmer' to use the almanac for the timing of planting, introduced the idea of long-range weather forecasting. Five years later, he was studying and predicting long-range weather one year in advance in Wilmington, NC. In another five years in Nags Head, NC, before hurricane season, he was studying and predicting hurricane landfalls for the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Virginia Beach, VA, to Miami Beach, FL. Hurricane Gloria (category 4) landed in his first personal prediction of a landfall zone, in 1985. Hurricane Hugo (category 5) was his second, in 1989. He missed Hurricane Charley (category 1), in 1986 — {However, Hurricane Charley (1986) was later perdicted sucessfully, added here in 2023}.
After contracting chronic fatigue syndrome and moving back to West Palm Beach, FL, in 1986, he returned to forecasting the following regions:
---Atlantic coastline from Key West, FL, to Lubec, ME (a 2,000-mile range), in 1995. His prediction that year was a successful forecast, of zero hurricane landfalls.
---Gulf of Mexico coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, FL (a 1,600-mile range), in 1998. Hurricanes Earl (category 1) and Georges (category 4) landed in his predicted zone that year.
---Atlantic-Basin-Islands coastline: Greater Antilles - Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, in 2000. Bahamas, in 2007.
---Eastern Asia coastline (NW Pacific) from Nam Can, Vietnam, to Nemuro, Japan (a 5,500-mile range), in 2008. This coastline includes Vietnam, China, Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Japan.
---Mexico, Central America, and Hawaii's coastline, in 2012: the East Pacific from Tijuana, Mexico, to Jaque, Panama, plus the Hawaiian Islands (a 5,000-mile range) and the Atlantic (Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) from Sapzurro, Panama, to Matamoros, Mexico (a 3,000-mile range). This coastline includes the Hawaiian Islands, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
---Philippine coastline (NW Pacific) from Tinaca Beach, Philippines, to Santa Ana, Philippines (a 1,500-mile range), in 2013. This coastline has the most category 1-5 storms per coastline-mile per year.
These four regions---U.S., Mexico/Cent Am, NW Pacific, and the Philippines---consist of 24 countries, 23,000 miles of coastline, and 1.2 billion people (15% of the world population). These regions are fairly consistent in the proportion of category 1-5 storms that have passed through Dale's zones: about 89 percent with close calls and oversights included. What is not consistent is how often category 1-5 storms pass through zones. In the U.S. Atlantic, it is about 50 percent of the time; in Mexico/CentAm Atlantic, 29 percent; in the Mexico/Cent Am Pacific, 67 percent; in the Philippines NW Pacific, 81 percent; and in the E. Asia NW Pacific, 75 percent. The frequency with which typhoon-strength storms occur is much higher in the NW Pacific; consequently, more typhoon-strength storms pass through predicted zones in that area.
The Northern Hemisphere:
Region (1) = U.S. Atlantic East Coast, Bahamas, and the Greater Antilles.
Region (2) = U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and Central America (Atlantic and Pacific), the Hawaiian Islands, and the Philippines.
Region (3) = East Asia (Vietnam, Taiwan, China, Koreas, and Japan).
Two methods are used: One-year and Two-year.
Region (2) uses One-year.
Regions (1) and (3) use Two-year.
The One-year method uses last-year's cyclone tracks that include INVESTS, tropical waves, subtropical, extratropical, and post-tropical cyclones, tropical storms, tropical depressions, and weak, short-duration hurricanes/typhoons (low-end Cat 1,74–90 mph for 24 hours or less), but NOT bona fide hurricanes/typhoons for this year's landfall-zone centers. A 320-mile range is used per cyclone track. The size of a zone (range) is determined by the swath path, and it can be modified (made greater) by adding multiple zones together.
The Two-year method uses two-years-ago cyclone tracks for this year's landfall-zone centers.
To understand a zone's configuration is to imagine that there are railroad tracks on the cyclone tracks that you are following, and that you are riding down those tracks with your arms extending out 160 miles perpendicular to them; hence, you create a 320-mile-wide swath path. And, as you continue down those tracks, you should approach land, so one of your arms will eventually hit land (call it A), while your other arm does likewise (call it B). Therefore, A to B = Range. But, sometimes one of those arms may extend out over water (that point will have to be defined accordingly).
Sometimes, one zone overlaps another by more than 50%; if so, combine the two to show one total zone (range). An example of this is shown in Zone 1 of the 2019 U.S. forecast. Other times, just show zones as is. And sometimes, multiple zones are combined to make one. An example of this is shown in the 2019 East Asia forecast—a very large zone stretching from the southern tip of Vietnam to the northern tip of Taiwan (seven individual zones, side-by-side, created that one zone). Thus, you can have overlap, and/or side-by-side, or some other combination that determines the zone size. Also, zone centers are usually shown in the forecasts to illustrate the centers of the tracks used. After 2020, only the zone's range will be shown (no centers). After 2022, the tracks that are used to create zones will be shown.
The single most significant ingredient needed to make an accurate forecast is ACCURATE DATA—that is to say, COMPLETE cyclone tracks from START to FINISH (birth to death). An example of this is shown by using the track of Tropical Storm Erika (2015), Figure 1, 2, & 3, to determine the correct forecast zones for 2016 and 2017 (Figure 4).
So, if you look up Erika's track today on Wikipedia, you will find Figure 2. Figure 1 existed in Wikipedia before they changed it back to Figure 2. Therefore, an accurate forecast was made for the 2017 forecast blue zones 2 & 3 using the Two-year method (Figure 4). Then, on 2/8/2019, remnants of Erika in the Gulf was discovered (Figure 3), and this enabled an additional 'should have had' red zone to be forecasted for the 2016 forecast using the One-year method (Figure 4).
To illustrate actual forecasting, imagine traveling down Erika's track (Figure 1), starting at the southeast side of Puerto Rico, then the south side of Hispaniola, then turn northward to the north side of Cuba, then northward some more, passing through Key West, FL. Here, you would be able to calculate the 2017 forecast blue zone 3—Two-year method (Figure 4); and then, since you are at Key West, you would be able to calculate the 2017 forecast blue zone 2—Two-year method (Figure 4). Then, go to Figure 3, and continue by following the remnant track of Erika to its landfall in the Gulf of Mexico's Big Bend Region of Florida. There, you would be able to calculate the 2016 forecast 'should have had' red zone—One-year method (Figure 4). Thus, the final score for the 2017 forecast: Blue Zone 3 = Irma & Maria and Blue Zone 2 = Irma. For the 2016 forecast: Red Zone 'should have had' = Hermine.
It is important to show a complete forecast zone regardless of its position. An example of this is shown in Figure 5, where Tropical Storm Cristobal 2008 created the 2010 forecast blue zone 2 (it overlaps the red zone 2 as shown)—using the Two-year method; but instead of using the blue zone, the 2010 forecast published the incorrect-red-zone 2 that was over LAND ONLY. The forecast should have used the original correct-blue-zone 2 that was over land and was extended out 170 miles southeast of Atlantic, NC (OVER WATER), and that would have resulted in Hurricane Earl passing through it.
Another example of this occurred the next year, when the 2011 U.S. forecast showed 80% of its zone over water and 20% over land via 2009 Tropical Depression 1-L; and then, Hurricane Irene made landfall over land in zone 2 (Figure 6).
NOTE: Hurricane Humberto 2007 and other similar, weak, or short duration hurricanes/typhoons (low-end Cat 1, 74–85 mph for 24 hours or less) are not defined as bona fide hurricanes/typhoons here; and consequently, their tracks are used to determine forecast zones. Examples: Humberto's 2007 tracks were used to calculate Zone 2 in the 2008 U.S. forecast that hurricanes Ike and Gustav passed through; and Typhoon Prapiroon's 2018 tracks (75 mph for 36 hours) were used to calculate Zone 5 in the 2020 Pacific Typhoon forecast that typhoons Haishen, Maysak, and Bavi passed through. (This method is still ongoing and not totally defined.)
One area that lends credence to these forecast methods is the Hawaiian Islands, because they are rarely affected by hurricanes; yet, three forecasts (2014, 2016, & 2018) showed hurricane activity in each of those years in the Hawaiian Islands' area, one as a hurricane, others as hurricanes passing through as tropical storms, and some passing just north or south as hurricanes (Figure 8 Scores). In Figure 9, a gray mockup zone was created and called Zone 2019 (#2, Figure 9) using the One-year method. It's located just southeast of Hawaii, and was created by the 2018 Tropical Storm Gilma (shown in #1 inside the white circle that is surrounded by four hurricanes, and then shown again in #2 by itself). Hurricanes Barbara #3 and Erick #4 passed through this zone, one as a hurricane and one as a remnant low. Hurricane Flossie #5 passed just north of it as a tropical storm.
Another reason for ACCURATE DATA is shown in Figure 10. This 2019 revised-forecast with blue zones 2 & 3 was determined by a hand-written path of 2017 Invest 92 L as shown in Figure 11 (discovered after the 2019 season). Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto passed through those zones.
More accurate forecasts can now (2021) be calculated using Zoom Earth invest-storm-plots.
In any event, these forecast methods are very simple: PAST tracks indicate FUTURE tracks.
WHEN TO USE the Super-El-Nino hurricane-landfall-forecasting method: The Super-El-Nino of 2015 and 2016 disrupted the hurricane landfall forecasts of 2017 and 2018 in the Gulf of Mexico, and consequently, those forecast accuracies were off. Because there was a two year difference between the Super-El-Nino years and the off-forecast years, a Two-year method was applied to the off-forecast years (2017 and 2018) with good results: Harvey in 2017 (missed Nate), and Michael in 2018. Therefore, in the future, use this method: Apply the Two-year method (rather than the One-year method) two years after the Super-El-Nino years in the Gulf of Mexico.
